Sooth-nay-saying
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And lo, I did gaze into my Crystal Ed-Balls and there I did see… a somewhat distorted version of myself. So instead, I thought I’d just make some stuff up and see if I turn out to be right.
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This morning, I voted. And for the Democratic Liberalites, no less. Now, with this looking like potentially the closest race in British election history, I thought I’d make some wild and preposterous predictions.
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Me. Honest.
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Firstly, the outcome, then the next 3 Labour leaders… and their contenders… then the next 2 Tory leaders… and their contenders… then the Chancellor, Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary… Justice Minister, Business Minister… the core spine of the coalition deal and queen’s speech… the make-up of the rest of the cabinet… and finally the gruesome fate of Ed Balls.
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And the Winner Is…
No one. I know, going out on a limb there. Who would have predicted that? Apart from, well, everyone. Yes, it’s fairly likely we’ll end up with a hung parliament with a Conservative party in possession of the most seats. But I’ll start by predicting that the Tories won’t have enough seats to claim victory.
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Swing like you're Hung, Jeremy.
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Most projections have only considered the Lab/Con swing and have ignored the Tory’s innevitable losses to the LibDems through the Con/Lib swing, which is likely to be around 7% (I’ll eat my headgear if it falls below 5%).
Here’s where the real predicting begins-
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Harriet Harman, PM
First thing on Friday morning, Harriet Harman (of the Labour Party) will visit the Queen (of England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Island, Australia, the Falkland Isles… and a few other geographical regions) and state that she has enough seats in the House of Commons to form a government.
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Well she seems pleased...
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It’s possible that the Labour party may set up Alan Johnson in Brown’s place rather than Harman. However, given the speed I’m predicting them to act and Harman already in place as deputy leader, few MPs will think it worthwhile to rock the boat with a leadership vote already tabled for the near future.
So, temporarily at least, Harriet Harman will become Prime Minister. How’s that for left-field (pun intended).
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The Deal
In the early hours of the morning, Gordon Brown will have resigned, leaving Harman in charge of an interim Labour government. Immediately – or possibly even before – someone (my money would be on Peter Mandelson, but it could be Harman or Brown himself) will call Nick Clegg and offer him:
- The guaranteed introduction of a system of Proportional Representation. Perhaps not the Single-Transferable-Vote system the LibDems prefer, but something close. Lords reform will probably be added here, but both parties are in favour, so it’s really just gravy.
- Four seats in the cabinet – including one of the “big three” (Chancellor, Home Secretary or Foreign Secretary) and possibly the Deputy Prime-Minister position as well. That much may depend on just how large a share of the votes Nick has – and I doubt he’d take it either (see below).
- A guarantee to pass – if not all, then a significant portion of – the LibDem’s “Freedom Bill” – which encompasses education reform, immigration reform (though not the amnesty) and political reform, among other things.
- An agreement to scrap ID cards. This would never pass without a massive majority anyway, so many Labourites may see it as a small loss.
- The introduction of the LibDem’s banking measures (separating the risk-heavy investment banking from risk-light savings and loan). This has been the least contentious of the LibDem’s top measures and, to my knowledge, has not been criticized at all by the other two parties. Next to this, only Trident and the Amnesty have been higher on the LD agenda (excluding voting reform and the Freedom bill, which we’ve already covered) and Labour can’t give the LDs either of them having spoken stringently against them.
All of this will be announced – along with other details – in the Queen’s speech on May 25th.
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"And so we must grasp the tits of government and reap the sweet milk of equality!"
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It is possible that a deal like this already exists – though, of course, that would never be confirmed by either party. However, it’s possible that both sides already have a list something like this – specifically so that an alliance/coalition can be quickly agreed upon in principle to prevent months of debating which could allow the Tories in through the back door.
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The Coalition
And that will happen of Friday morning. There will be, perhaps, two hours of haggling over the key points above – maybe more, maybe less – and an alliance or coalition will be formed, in principle, with the finer points worked out once government is sitting.
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The problem here may be that, when the parties later come to iron out the final details, the talks may break down and quickly destroy the alliance/coalition. We’ll have to wait and see.
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The Second Unelected PM (third if you count Harriet)
Following this agreement, Harman will call a leadership test to determine which member of the Labour Party will become the Prime Minister. Harman herself will probably not stand, though I won’t rule that out completely. Instead, we’ll have the options of:
- Harriet Harman. Deputy leader and natural successor to Brown. Will have much support – as she did in the campaign for deputy leader. However, the fact that she was deputy leader under Brown may count against her in a Labour party looking to try and re-invent themselves.
- Alan Johnson. Bookies’ favourite. Seemingly well-liked in the party. Probably seen as a good interim leader and peacemaker. Not the youngest man in the world, so won’t be overtly worried about the chances that his premiership could be short-lived.
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"I'll probably be here about this long...? Maybe? If I'm lucky."
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- Peter Hain. The shock entry that surprises everyone (except you, now) and who emerges as the only other realistic competitor to Johnson. Why Hain? Well he’s a known figure on the fringe of the party and closer to old-Labour than new-. Given Brown’s departure, some of the party may want to return to the roots and clean themselves of the sullied badge of the Brown/Blair New Labour. Most significantly, he surprisingly came out in favour of tactical voting yesterday – an odd move. Ed Balls’ similar declaration may mean (1) he is also thinking of running, but if he does, he’ll fall flat, (2) he’s backing Hain, (3) he said it to give Brown a more heavyweight figure to respond to so he could counter the call without validating Hain or (4) he actually thinks people should vote tactically.
- Not David Milliband. He’s not that stupid. It’s a known secret that Milliband-the-younger has been touted as leadership material for some time. And if Labour looked set to lose this election, he’d probably be facing a coronation to lead the Shadow Cabinet – and oust Cameron and the Tories a few years down the line. However, given the unstable nature of any coalition government (at least at first) and Mervyn King’s warning on the fate of the next government (that their cuts will have to be so severe they will be out of power for a generation) Milliband won’t want to take the top-job just yet. He’s young (relatively) he can afford to wait on the sidelines and take the leadership (a) before the next election – if the Lib/Lab coalition survives the full term or (b) after a second election, once Labour are in opposition.
It’s not impossible that people like Ed Balls and perhaps even Alistair Darling (Chancellor) might run. But I seriously doubt it – Balls is seen as something of Brown 2.0 and Darling has made it publicly clear that he doesn’t want the job.
Regardless, Johnson will win.
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And in the Blue Corner
Oh, and while all this has been going on, David Cameron has resigned as Tory Leader – though reluctantly, claiming the moral victory, effectively being forced out by David Davis’ camp – and been replaced, probably unopposed, by Ken Clarke. Clarke will also be seen as an interim figure and will likely be replaced before the next election – he’ll know that, but the Tories will want an economically-versed front-man to level the right charges against a Lib/Lab coalition inevitably struggling to fix the economy.
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Suits you, sir.
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When and if Clarke steps down – depending on how long the Lib/Lab coalition survives – the battle to succeed him will be fought between Liam Fox and an outsider like Gove or perhaps Grayling. At an outside bet, George Osborne.
No matter who the contender is, Fox will win.
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The Next Government
Anyway, that’s two pretty major predictions. They’re almost certainly not going to happen like that. So why stop there. For my next trick, I shall predict the Lib/Lab coalition cabinet (or, at least, the important positions).
- CHANCELLOR > Alistair Darling. No change. Despite the prowess of Vince Cable, it’s a no-win for the LibDems to put him as Chancellor. If the economy recovers, the credit will go to Brown and Darling for guiding us through the recession. If the economy tanks, the current chancellor will get the blame. All sides will be happy to leave Darling where he is – and there he shall stay.
- HOME SECRETARY > David Milliband. Known, respected, not-widely-considered-a-prat. Milliband will want to stay close to the action and with the focus of the next few years on the economy, Home-Sec will look relatively blameless.
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"The recovering economy will find a new cornerstone in my patented Cloak of Invisibility - as modeled by this hooker."
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- FOREIGN SECRETARY > Nick Clegg. I doubt he’ll take deputy PM (that will likely stay with Harman). The LibDems will want to keep their underdog-card in reserve for the next election and they’ll have it in spades if they’ve been seen as the only force propping up an ancient and decrepit Labour regime. Clegg is perfect material for Foreign-Sec – experienced in the EU, fluent in several languages. And he also gets to be the guy who brings the troops home from Afghanistan (again, assuming the coalition lasts the full term).
- JUSTICE MINSTER > Chris Huhne. Despite Clegg beating him to the LibDem leadership by only 1.2%, Huhne has been a staunch ally to Nick and is experienced as the LD equivalent of the Home-Sec. Since Justice only broke away from the Home Office when Brown took office, it’s a new yet powerful department and the ideal place outside the top three for the LibDems to place someone for maximum coverage.
- BUSINESS > Vince Cable. Where better to put a doctor of economics than in charge of the department in charge of helping instigate the recovery. Well, the Treasury, but we’ve covered that. With Cable in Business he can still put his skills to use – and the LibDems won’t mind if the media start speculating that Darling is just Cable’s puppet. Then they can take credit for success and more credit for correcting failures. Plus, he’s taking over from Mandelson, so he’ll look like an Angel next to the (now) self-styled Dark Lord.
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And now for some Pure Speculation
As for who will take the LibDem’s fourth cabinet spot, I’m still undecided. They’ll probably go for something where they can win some influence, but they may not have much choice. I’d expect them to end up with Transport or Housing – something middle-of-the-road.
As for who, David Laws would be the top candidate, though whether the LDs have enough bargaining power remains to be seen. It’s not impossible that Ed Davey could find a home somewhere other than foreign affairs (though he may get International Development instead).
However, Clegg and co may end up having to simply promote their current incumbent from Shadow to Actual. In this case it would depend on which position they find themselves with.
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"Un-for-getable. That's what you are..."
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As an outside bet, it’s not impossible that a popular (at least, in Liberal circles) figure like Evan Harris (@DrEvanHarris – well worth a follow) may find himself at Energy and Climate Change or Innovations, Universities and Skills. Instead, he may get Science and Innovation – which isn’t, I was surprised to learn, part of the official cabinet, though he would still attend all cabinet meetings.
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And While We’re on the Subject…
Expect Health, Eduction, Defense, etc… to stay with Labour. It’s also not impossible that the coalition might give the LibDems the speaker if they find themselves facing a fight for Leader of the Commons, Chief Whip or another of the top jobs.
Of Jack Straw, there will be no sign. Though pending developments, he may re-emerge somewhere down the line.
Ed Milliband will find his way into one of the higher jobs – as might Hain if he doesn’t end his career with his leadership bid. Also expect to see more of Tessa Jowel, John Denham and Hilary Benn (the man with the backwards name).
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"The name's Ashdown. Paddy Ashdown." (He was actually a spy)
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Paddy Ashdown will be made a Lord and will – possibly working with Peter Mandelson – spearhead a joint push for House of Lords reform (both possibly having some roll in the cabinet as well – though unlikely for Ashdown unless the LibDems break over 100 seats). Brown offered him Northern Ireland Secretary when he became PM, so it’s not impossible he could make a return.
The Digital Economy Bill will be repealed and replaced with a better version within two years. With prop-rep and given the lessons of this campaign, Labour will feel less inclined to bow to the whims of Rupert Murdoch – and the LibDems have already pledged to repeal it anyway.
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...Balls.
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Whoever gets Work and Pensions may well see their career go up in smoke. My money there’s on Ed Balls.
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UPDATE: As of 5:00 on Friday, I would appear to have been mostly wrong. Still might get the cabinet right though…
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